2014 presents a dramatic increase in risks to participants in the North American heavy freight industry. The placid, slow growth environment has a strong potential to explode into firestorm of capacity shortages, price hikes and supply failures. The market faces an almost equal chance of recession late in 2014 or in 2015. These exposures have profound implications for investors, carriers, regulators and shippers. This session will present a clear benchmark base case for economics, freight demand, pricing and capacity, then quantify the upward and downward exposures. Importantly this environment contains the seeds of several game-changing development.
President Obama pinpointed improved highway infrastructure, natural gas fuel innovation, and job training programs as key 2014 priorities during his recent State of the Union Address.
This only fueled the optimism of the economists predicting a boon for the heavy freight industry in 2014. Pointing to positive signs in the economy as a whole, economists in this camp warn that those in the industry should ramp up capacity.
Economists on the other side of the spectrum site a lack of concrete details in the State of the Union address and the continued rise in the price of fuel as supporting evidence for their prediction of another slow-growth year at best, and a recession at worst.With so much riding on an accurate estimation of the 2014 heavy freight outlook, you can’t afford to under-(or over-) estimate the 2014 reality.
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Noel Perry worked his way up through the heavy freight industry, beginning on a loading dock and culminating in his current role as a leading industry consultant. During his 45 year career he has worked for suppliers, railroads, truckers, barge and salt water vessel operators, and financial consultants. Recognized as a... More info