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Identify Process Risks: Monte Carlo Simulation for the Uninitiated

 

You Can Use Computer Analysis To Improve Decision-Making—Even If You’re a Newbie

Even though we have unprecedented access to information, accurately predicting the outcome of a manufacturing process—and its inherent risks—is not easy. Risk-assessment tools allow you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, assess their impact, identify and exploit opportunities, and proceed more confidently. One tool that lets you perform all these tasks easily—and at a low cost—is Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Monte Carlo simulation is one of 31 risk-assessment techniques listed in ISO 31010. It’s based on probability and statistics, but it doesn’t require a deep understanding of them, so it’s a great beginner’s tool. If you’re able to quantify input variables and interpret the output distribution, you’re ready to learn how to use MCS to guide efficiencies in your manufacturing ventures.

Join industry veteran, Duke Okes, in this must-webinar as he explains how to set up simulation and interpret results using Monte Carlo. Okes will demonstrate example applications—such as tolerance analysis, process yield, timing, and financial planning—and determine which distribution to use for input variables. He will also show you how to build and test from fewer physical models/experiments, determine the critical outputs through sensitivity analysis, and more.

You will find this webinar useful—even if you have never been exposed to Monte Carlo simulation—whether you are an engineer, a product or process designer, a Six Sigma green/black belt, or a project manager.

Session Highlights

This session will prepare you to:

  • Learn about Monte Carlo from practical applications (e.g., tolerance analysis, process yield, project timing, financial planning)  
  • Determine which distribution to use for the input variables
  • Build and test fewer physical models/experiments
  • Use sensitivity analysis to determine the more critical inputs
  • Understand how Monte Carlo compares to FMEA and Bowtie
  • Set up simulations and interpret the results
  • Appreciate the practical, low-cost benefits of using Monte Carlo
    (i.e. wide availability, Microsoft Excel compatibility, etc.)

Who Should Attend

  • Engineers
  • Product & process designers
  • Planners & risk managers
  • Six Sigma green/black belts
  • Project managers
 
 

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